Daniel Hogg

Modelling Spatial Variations in Natural Disaster Impact

NZ Canterbury DanielHogg
University of Canterbury
Supervisor (Academic)
Prof Simon Kingham & Dr Thomas Wilson, University of Canterbury
Supervisor (Industry)
Prof Michael Ardagh, Canterbury District Health Board
Thesis Abstract

Daniel Hogg and University of Canterbury colleagues Simon Kingham, Thomas M. Wilson, Edward Griffin, and Michael Ardagh published the paper Geographic variation of clinically diagnosed mood and anxiety disorders in Christchurch after the 2010/11 earthquakes in October 2014.


The 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake killed 185 people, injured over 8000, damaged over 100 000 buildings, and on-going aftershocks maintained high anxiety levels.

This paper examines the dose of exposure effect of earthquake damage assessments, earthquake intensity measures, liquefaction and lateral spreading on mood and anxiety disorders in Christchurch after this event. We hypothesise that such disorders are more likely to develop in people who have experienced greater exposure to these impacts within their neighbourhood than others who have been less exposed, but also live in the city. For this purpose, almost all clinically diagnosed incident and relapsed cases in Christchurch in a 12 month period after the 2011 earthquake were analysed. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis shows that people living in the widely affected central and eastern parts after the 2010/11 earthquakes have a 23% higher risk of developing a mood or anxiety disorder than people living in other parts of the city. Generally, mood and anxiety-related disorders increase with closer proximity to damage from liquefaction and moderate to major lateral spreading, as well as areas that are more likely to suffer from damage in future earthquakes.

The full article can be downloaded here.